West Bengal tracker: TMC 23-29 seats, Left 7-13, Congress 4-7, BJP 0-1

CNN-IBN | Mar 31, 2014 

New Delhi: The victory march of the ruling TMC led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee continues in West Bengal. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS national election tracker and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress will win 23-29 seats, Left Front 7-13, Congress 4-7 and BJP 0-1. The other smaller parties including Aam Aadmi Party will draw a blank.

According to the survey the TMC is expected to get 38 per cent votes in the state. It was 33 per cent in January. The main opposition Left Front has managed to retain its hold with 25 per cent votes. Even in January, it was 25 per cent for the Left. The Congress vote share has seen a 3 per cent drop since January. It is now expected to get 16 per cent of the votes. It was 19 per cent in January.

The BJP vote share has seen a 2 per cent drop. It was 14 per cent in January. It is now expected to get just 12 per cent votes. The AAP is projected to get just 1 per cent votes and the others are expected to get 8 per cent votes.

According to the March survey, only 12 per cent prefer Mamata Banerjee for the post of Prime Minister.

Regional scenario

In north Bengal, there has been a three way split between the TMC, Left and the Congress. In South-West Bengal, the TMC is leading by a huge margin. In South-East Bengal, the TMC is leading, but the gap between TMC and Left is not too wide. In Greater Kolkata, the contest is between the TMC - Left and the BJP.

In urban parts Bengal, the TMC has a huge lead over the Left. The TMC has 54 per cent support and the TMC has just 21 per cent support. In rural Bengal the TMC has 43 per cent support and the Left has 30 per cent support.

The survey shows that the Muslim votes are divided between TMC-Congress and Left across West Bengal. The TMC is expected to get 35 per cent, the Congress 28 per cent and the Left 26 per cent of the Muslim votes respectively. The BJP is likely to get 5 per cent Muslim votes.

The net satisfaction with Trinamool government's performance has gone up in the last two months, so has the net satisfaction with the UPA government's performance in West Bengal. (Net satisfaction is satisfaction percentage minus dissatisfaction percentage). 38 per cent respondents feel that they are satisfied with the performance of the TMC government. It was just 21 per cent in last January.

Only 17 per cent respondents are satisfied with the performance of the UPA government. It was minus 4 per cent in January.

Most respondents say that the TMC state government's work will be more important to them while voting than the Central government's performance. 40 per cent respondents answer that they vote depending on the performance of the state government. Just 19 per cent answer that the Centre's performance is very important to vote. But, there is no clear answer to a question on whether the UPA should get another chance.

28 per cent respondents say yes, 32 per cent say no and 40 per cent have no opinion on this topic.

Modi leads PM race

Interestingly, Narendra Modi is leading the PM race in West Bengal. 15 per cent of the respondents prefer him for the post of PM. Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee are close behind with 12 per cent votes for the post of PM. However, many in West Bengal feel that Mamata Banerjee will make a good Prime Minister if she becomes one.

Overall 38 per cent respondents feel that Mamata Banerjee will make a good PM if she becomes one. Among the TMC voters, it is 67 per cent. Almost 28 per cent respondents feel that she won't be a good PM and only 11 per cent of the TMC supporters express the same opinion. Four out of ten respondents are optimistic about Mamata becoming the next PM.

Who is responsible for Left's poor condition in West Bengal?

Overall 9 per cent respondents claim that Buddhadeb Bhattarcharya is responsible and 10 per cent left worker agree with this. Overall 2 per cent blame Prakash Karat. Among the Left backers also 2 per cent blame him.

Biman Bose also gets same number of votes.

Overall 21 per cent blame all of the above for the decline of the Left. Among the Left backers it is 26 per cent.